Thursday, September 27, 2012

Biased polls or is the GOP crazy like a fox?

Is there really bias in the polls, as team Romney is claiming? Only if FOX News has become a bastion of Liberals.

Here's the real deal:

Gallup has Obama up by 6 points. Bloomburg has Obama up by 6, and they cannot be considered Liberal by any stretch of the imagination. And FOX News has Obama up by 5 points. FOX News cannot be considered Liberal by any stretch of a drug-induced hallucination. Yet Team Romney continues to cry about Liberal bias in polls. They do point to Rasmussen, which has the race tied nationally, but even the House of Ras has Obama ahead in almost all of the swing states, some by comfortable margins. OK, the House of Ras is Liberal too.

How does team Romney get around that? It relies upon a blog that is fudging the data, and claims that Romney is going to win in a landslide. But why? Is Romney desperate? Is he whining? The answer is more straightforward than you might think. It is a fact that, if one side takes a large enough lead, turnout tends to be depressed for the other side on election day. This is something that the Republican Party cannot afford, as this would affect all the close downballot races in the Senate and the House.

So, with all this in mind, here is my own analysis:

1) I think Romney knows the truth regarding his chances at this time.

2) I also believe that team Romney's talk about poll bias, along with the fake polling site, is another tool in the political toolbox, and is being used to shore up support in downballot races.

3) Finally, this election is not over, and if Obama slips up, Romney can come back. But that might be difficult if the party faithful see him so far back that some of them still don't get out and vote, thinking it's a losing cause.

4) And even if Romney loses, there are still downballot races where the GOP needs their base to get out and vote. The Senate, and possibly the House too, are at stake. Although I believe that a Democratic takeover of the House is improbable, Republican chances of a Senate takeover are higher than that.

So, in the end, Romney is acting like he has acted in the past - As a cunning businessman, who is thinking along the same kinds of logical lines that made him successful in business, and not giving up. Romney is playing a bad hand, which he dealt himself, but is playing that hand like a pro. In spite of what I think about Romney, I do like the fact that he does not give up, and keeps on fighting. That, in itself, is not a bad qualification to be president. I still think he is going to lose, but when he goes down to defeat, if the GOP still holds the House, and especially if they manage to take the Senate, Romney will have taken one for the team, and will have taken it well.