The Republican Civil War - 2012 Edition

This is not the first time Republicans have fought each other for control of the minds and agenda of the Republiclan Party. You saw it after Reagan left office, when Neocons and Paleocons fought for control. But this year, the war is playing out much like it did in 1964. albeit with a different outcome looming.

In 1964, Barry Goldwater was the juggernaut, an ideological purist, and William Scranton, a Northeast establishment Republican pulled out all the stops in an attempt to derail Goldwater's nomination. During this attempt, he attempted to recruit Mit Romney's father, George, to carry the banner for the "Stop Goldwater" Campaign. George Romney turned down this request. That year, after Goldwater was nominated, a few of the establishment Republiclans, and Scranton himself, worked somewhat with the Democrats towards Goldwater's defeat, and in 1968, got their man, a moderate named Richard Nixon, elected.

This year, the shoe is on the other foot, with an establishment Republican being the juggernaut, with the ideological purists of the party attempting to stop him, but this battle is not that much unlike that of 1964, with establishment Republicans waging war with the purists. In this context, I have a few observations to make.

1) Romney will be the nominee. There is no doubt in my mind.

2) With Romney as the nominee, Republicans have an outside shot to knock off Obama this year.

3) Romney's lead over Gingrich shows that the influence of the Tea Party is waning.

4) For the Democrats, Occupy Wall Street is having a big say in the agenda.

5) For the record, both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street are excellent examples of grass roots movements, where people, fed up with how things work in Washington, are making their voices heard.

6) However, both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street have been coopted by the fringes on the right and left, respectively, and hijacked by the political parties which support them. Thus, they become not grass roots, but movements controlled by party apparatus.

7) Why will this election be close? Because, as people have become fed up with the Tea Party's extremism, they will also become fed up with the extremisim of Occupy Wall Street, and vote accordingly.

8) Who wins this year? IMHO, this election is Obama's to lose, but Democrats should not count their chickens, which are not in the bank yet. Obama could still blow this one, and if he does, Republicans will have the right candidate in place to take over. He will be a canddate who actually has a chance of winning.

9) It is Independent and moderate hearts both parties are going to have to win over, in order to win the election.

10) I don't care what the polls say. This one is going to be very close.